In the world of scientific research, there are breakthroughs—and then there are meta-breakthroughs. A project pioneered by CZS Conservation Biologist Dr. Robert Lacy recently led to a major advancement in the use of computer modeling to predict species extinctions. The MetaModels Manager is a powerful new software program designed to link population viability analysis with climate change, emerging diseases, habitat changes, and human social factors. MetaModels Manager will integrate important computer simulation models—such as VORTEX, OUTBREAK and SPATIAL—to understand the influence of environmental, demographic, and genetic factors on the probability of extinction of threatened species.
The preliminary simulation shown models how a population of prairie dogs (blue line) is effected by periodic infectious disease (the dips in population size), and the influence of a population of black-footed ferrets (red line which reflects a case of ferret extinction following a disease outbreak which temporarily decimated the prairie dog population).
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Dr. Lacy says the whole initiative arose from the recognition that conservation problems involve complex multi-faceted issues, and are rarely the result of a single, simple threat to the species. “The history of science is one of trying to partition phenomena into discrete, isolatable components that can be studied by specialists working in isolation – but that isn’t how the real world works,” says Lacy.
After making refinements that will make the program more user-friendly, Dr. Lacy and the other team members plan to make MetaModel Manager available for free download online so that researchers and conservationists across the globe can benefit from each others’ work. He has already made his seminal VORTEX computer software available online at no cost. VORTEX is now the most widely used Population Viability Analysis software in the world, influencing today’s management of hundreds of species, including Dr. Lacy’s personal involvement with the conservation plans of the Florida panthers, whooping cranes, and Humboldt penguins.
CZS President and CEO Stuart Strahl, Ph.D., says that “this is breakthrough work done by scientists who are committed to saving threatened wildlife around the world. With MetaModel Manager, researchers can—for the first time ever—simultaneously examine how multiple interacting species are affected by multiple phenomena such as climate change, emerging diseases, habitat changes, and human social factors. They can develop truly integrated solutions by working across disciplines.”
The informal network of collaborators that make up the bio-complexity network includes: ecologists, population biologists, computer programmers, sociologists, demographers, epidemiologists, wildlife managers, and conservation practitioners. Dr. Lacy already foresees a number of real-life situations where people working in the field on conservation challenges can utilize the network in developing case studies. “We hope to test the use of the meta-modeling approach in a few real situations, working to develop conservation plans for various species such as Kruger lions (South Africa), Riding Mount National Park elk (Canada), lion tamarins (Brazil), and Tasmanian devils (Australia).”
Primary funding for creating MetaModel Manager came from the generous support of Donna Myers and Aaron Lebovitz, CZS donors. The collaboration that led to this breakthrough received initial funding from the National Science Foundation and subsequent support from individual researchers, their institutions, and conservation organizations including CZS.